Peter Thiel座談會心得筆記Day 1


Peter Thiel Seminar
 
no formula for enterprenuership
 
創業沒有公式
 
only one zuckerberg for sns, only one gates for one os system
 
一個行業只會有一個獨家,唯一的獨家(因為Peter很強調獨佔性-monopoly)
 
indirect intellectual question is what great company is not established, its hard because its socially uncomfortable, interesting answers are ones people not like to hear, people dont think make sense, you dont get support early on
 
還有什麼偉大的公司沒有被建立?你要去想這件事,但這件事之所以難,是因為很難被社會認同,大家喜歡聽已知的答案,但有趣的答案是人們不想聽的,他們認為不合常理,所以在早期你不會得到支持
 
so much better to monopoly
if you want to compete like crazy, just open an restaurant
people in monopoly dont want to talk about it
technology-company like google said themselves, they say they compete with technology company  or even car company from detroit, two ends compete crazy or monopoly dont talk about it
 
獨佔性事業是最棒的,但通常他們不會說,只會模糊焦點,像是google獨佔的搜尋引擎,但他們對外宣稱自己是科技公司,是在「科技競爭」,甚至還發明了汽車,宣稱自己是汽車公司,去和底特律的汽車公司競爭。非常競爭的行業,和非常獨佔的行業這兩端的業者通常都不會說
 
20000 power seller, went up gradually, then you expand
當年PayPal是從兩萬的強力賣家開始成長
 
we’re trained to compete, from the school education, if you can get out of competition, school team, students’s identities were wrapped up with the school, competition can make us better, but losing whats really important, losers competing for unmeaningful things, rewards are so small, people fighting crazy for smaller and smaller things
 
我們從學校開始就會教育「競爭」,學生的身份被包裝成校隊或成績,很難脫離。當然,競爭能讓你更好,但因此忽略了真正重要的事,我們往往不知道我們在競爭那沒有意義的事,人們打得要死要活,但爭的獎勵卻是越來越小
 
the largest cohort group keep doing the wrong things, imitation can be very bad thing, very wrong, although we need to pass on our cultures
 
一直以來我們因為生存而模仿,但模仿這件事有著極大風險,他可能是極大錯誤的,包括學校內的很多大型社團或組織都在一直重複這些錯誤
 
all trends are overrated, you should be suspicious about it, more buzz words you use, you’re weaker, big data, cloud, you’re in the category people are already understand, then you’re not differentiated, some category are even mislabeled
 
所有趨勢都被高估,包括雲端、大數據等等,你都必須保持懷疑,越常提起術語的人往往最弱,因為他們沒有那個獨特的優勢點,那表示你已經屬於那被理解的類別之中,你並沒有差異性,何況這些類別往往被錯貼了標籤
 
7 years before facebook, social net by reid hoffman, facebook wins because real identity, critical question always whats unique, gives you edge over time, as compare to real identity to sns, pagerank to search, not trend, but that unique thing, dont follow the trends, need to be skeptical
 
business strategies are most important, need to work toward monopoly, team work in start-up, as compared to academic achievement, as you compete with everybody
 
facebook成立的七年前,我好友Reid Hoffman就已經看到了「社群」,並成立了一個網站叫做social net,但後來facebook還是贏了,他們贏在真實身份,不是贏在「社群」,就像google贏在pagerank機器運算法,不是贏在「搜尋的趨勢」,所以不要相信趨勢,相信自己最獨特的優勢,可以隨著時間而漸趨獨佔的「點」
 
商業策略才是關鍵,要朝獨佔性前進。新創公司重點在團隊合作,動態的和世界競爭,不像學校成績那樣是一人和多人比
 
categories peter will never invest, 
“blind spots” peter invests airbnb but not uber ,because people like black car but don't sleep on couches, this is investor’s blind spots
 
Peter投資了Airbnb但沒有投Uber,因為多數投資人都有盲點,他們認為大家喜歡坐黑頭車,不喜歡睡在別人家沙發,所以若你不要有盲點就能獨具慧眼
 
twitter’s management is horrible, bad and very bad
if you open a restaurant, the management must be good, 
but twitter has a great idea, too powerful to make up for a lot
a lot of thing went wrong in PayPal, but still workout, just solve one by one as time goes
 
twitter的營運管理非常糟糕,但因為他們掌握到一個市場,點子很好,就算營運很爛,但公司的快速成長足以彌補,你知道什麼公司營運管理最好,是餐廳,因為產品高度競爭,營運管理不好不行。就像當年我們PayPal一樣,每天內部都遇到一堆問題,從來沒發生過的問題,但只要一件一件去解決就好
 
absolute value, not owner’s percentage, fast compounding rate, it can still very powerful, grow 7-8% per day, then compound it daily. worth more then raising extra capital, enormous premium, take over the world then make money, rather then make money then take the world (market share), you have to grow fast, prove it works, every business that fast-growing, self-sustainable, all turns out pretty good,
 
創業家要在乎公司價值的「絕對值」,不是股份佔比,一家100%擁有的公司市值一百萬,不如一家市值一億的10%股權。利滾利是非常恐怖的一件事,如果每天都能高速倍增(網站各數據),那結果一定是好的。先求快速成長市佔率,再求賺錢,不要先求賺錢再爭市佔率,你要快速累積用戶,證明這模式是可行的,然後一旦能自養自足,我看到的結果全是好的
 
“better version of question” can be…
這問題更好的說法是(因為有個問題問法不好)
 
facebook makes money from advertising, advertising and more advertising, but it boring to say that, excess possibilities at original time
 
facebook就是賺廣告費,和更多的廣告費,這聽起來很無聊,所以他們要多講點可能性
 
nothing else matters for apple, if you make fortune selling iPhones, nowadays iPhones can be pc back then, so maybe  there’s incremental changes and improvements
 
蘋果未來賣什麼根本無所謂,因為他們手機的市佔率已經成形,也許手機的發展很像當年的mac電腦,但一定還會有點滴的進化
 
silicon valley still underestimating chinese company to expand to the rest of the world, but china is deeply political, quietly strict regulated, will Jack Ma stay close and behave with the government, the chinese subsidy can really compete with google outside china
 
矽谷仍然低估中國的企業走出中國的實力,但因為中國的政治因素太深,很多事情仍被嚴格管制,阿里巴巴的未來要看馬雲如何配合中國政府,以至於我們仍不知道中國企業出了中國是否能與世界一流企業競爭
 
about media, the challenge is on business model and strategy, not technology
 
媒體的挑戰不是科技,而是生意模式和策略
 
Day 2 演講逐字稿和中文翻譯